The Theory of Large Numbers and R&D

So what if there are a billion people with broadband smartphones in 2011? Well the first effect is to warp the universe of R&D. Huge sums of money are being spent because it can be amortized over billions of devices. Nokia spent nearly $8 billion on R&D for their mobile phone business last year. R&D Number from Motorola, Samsung, Apple, Intel, and Microsoft are all comparable as they focus on a world wide technology upgrade to broadband.

This puts government R&D in command and control at a big disadvantage if does not exploit commercial developments and standards. Military system developers often try to "leap ahead" of existing technology. Instead, they have been falling behind the torrent of change. And strange things begin to happen like soldiers carrying iPhones into battle in Afghanistan.

It also changes business models dramatically as we can imagine ethereal markets for goods and services from anywhere for anyone. Take a visit to the UCF Medical School library. One would expect an entire building filled with volumes of expensive medical books and journals. Its the size of a Starbucks. The students are all given iPad's. Their library is virtual. Saved UCF millions of dollars. And the library moves with the student.

The Kindle and Nook devices are also emptying the book stores. I get nostalgic for paper. I have pangs of concern about how we will archive digital data. Paper seems to be a durable. But it can't keep up. Billions of people now need to read, communicate, and compose with billions of other people that mobile technology can provide. Its not 1848 when the steam-powered printing press was sufficient for informing a generation of small literate class in the industrial era.

And when you can make information devices so cheaply for billions then you can think about other problem they might solve. The Taiwanese semiconductor folks already have a target.
"The semiconductor technology can not only merchandize but also enter human bodies to monitor hart beat, check blood pressure and cure stroke."